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Twitter is a challenging medium for a manager of an investment firm, since the character limit makes standard disclaimers impossible. A suggestion that I took to heart, was to include a link to such disclaimers and disclosures in my twitter bio. Relevant information will remain on this page, updated as appropriate, however all content is subject to change without notice.
We invest in and actively trade many cryptocurrencies. We have the ability to take both long and short positions, and fairly frequently enter and exit positions. Anything that I write about crypotocurrency represents a potential conflict of interest given my role as the manager of a cryptocurrency portfolio. The information included on Twitter or other public mediums is for general information purposes only.
Nothing that I write should be construed as, or relied upon as, investment, financial, legal, regulatory, accounting, tax or similar advice. Nothing should be construed as a solicitation to invest in any security, future, or other financial product, and nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to engage in any investment strategy or transaction.
An investment in any strategy involves a high degree of risk. There is the possibility of loss and all investment involves risk including the loss of principal. Any projections, forecasts and estimates are necessarily speculative in nature. Matters they describe are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other unpredictable factors, many of which are beyond my knowledge or control. Any data, calculations, or qualitative statements about the present or past may be erroneous.
No representations or warranties are made as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any statements. All statements are my personal opinion, unless otherwise specified. Cryptocurrency investors usually only look at the investable landscape. They ignore those projects that are hard or impossible to invest in.
This is a big mistake when considering an investment in a competitive industry. Sometimes, the person will respond by naming other competitors with an exchange listed cryptocurrency or an upcoming ICO. Never do they respond with competitors that have no cryptocurrency. To decide if XRP is a good buy, you have to look at the competitive landscape and decide why you think XRP is likely to beat out the competition.
Great project, great team, but they have at least a dozen serious competitors, some of which may have greater traction. CVC may be a great bet on the blockchain identity use case, but we can only conclude that after comparing Civic to its long list of competitors. Making that call requires evaluating the level of traction the competition has achieved.
A lot of poker, at high stakes. I played online, in Atlantic City, in underground Philadelphia poker clubs, and against other UPenn undergrads. I was a very good player, but I had a few college friends who were objectively better. They were better at every aspect of the game…except one: And because of that one weakness, a couple of them were constantly broke.
They would challenge the best professionals, like Phil Ivey, to high stakes heads up games. I spent most of my time playing against weaker players. I realized early on that table selection was a part of poker too, and there was no shame in using that as a critical part of playing profitable poker.
And as a trader, there are some tables I want to sit at, and others that I want to avoid. Over the following month, the ICO table got much more competitive. Initial valuations skyrocketed as investor capital flooded into the space.
And a great many of the professionals entering cryptocurrency are currently focused on ICOs. But I see softer tables at the moment. Avoid the temptation to compete against the best even if you think you are the best. Choose your opponents carefully. This is what we saw over the last 7 months. Bitcoin rallied impressively, but was dramatically outperformed by the more volatile and more speculative Ethereum, which was itself outperformed by some of the even more speculative and smaller cryptocurrencies.
People felt they could buy those equities with confidence they were both safe and high performing assets. That belief becomes self-reinforcing for a time — as money flows in and people buy every dip, the securities do indeed look both very stable and very lucrative.
Look at the cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase, Gemini, and the investment trusts offered by Grayscale, and the equivalent companies in Asia. Look at the most liquid, most stable, and oldest cryptocurrencies, the ones that would be most appetizing to, say, a Family Office that wants to broadly invest in cryptocurrency in as passive a form as possible. They get that this is going to be big. They report on sharp rallies and collapses in the price of bitcoin or ether and occasionally mention the small fund managers in the space, but usually it was presented as a quirky observation of something crazy happening.
Do they treat a crypto fund manager like any other hedge fund manager? Do they report on individual cryptocurrencies like equities or commodities or as new technologies? They know they need to learn more. The Cryptocurrency Investor Bringing professional capital allocation to the crypto space. Comparing Cryptocurrency in to Tech in Posted in Cryptocurrency 3 Comments. Posted in Cryptocurrency 1 Comment. Disclaimers and disclosures Posted on October 30, by Ari Paul.
Posted in Cryptocurrency 5 Comments. Posted in Cryptocurrency Tagged civic , competitors , Cryptocurrency , ripple 8 Comments. Posted in Cryptocurrency 11 Comments. Posted in Cryptocurrency 10 Comments. Create a website or blog at WordPress.