Metascarcity and Bitcoin’s future

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The problem with writing about Bitcoin is that the subject has become so emotional. The very name inspires triumph, greed, resentment, or fury. Triumph from those handful of metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture yes, really who are watching the destiny they long foretold actually come true before their eyes. Greed from those hundreds of thousands of newbies who just bought in. Those two groups are, of course, bitcoin believers.

As someone enmeshed in the outskirts of the San Francisco hacker scene I know more than a few of those. And fury from those for whom Bitcoin represents tech bros busy fiddling with some kind of bullshit libertarian Internet money while all around us Rome is burning:. Fuck your block chain Fuck your crypto currency Fuck your imaginary techno utopia built out of my burning world https: Those people are, to understate, bitcoin skeptics.

But wait, it gets worse! The bad faith, and generally correct assumption of bad faith, among bitcoin conversationalists on Reddit is really metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture even for Reddit. Even many of the cryptorati are, shall we say, not always exactly redolent of good faith. Even their metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture vicious critic would have to admit that they have had a truly extraordinary run over the last eight years.

A good question to ask is: Is permissionless programmable money a fad which will go away? Programmable money is too useful for people to give up on entirely, and permissionless money would now be very, very difficult to ban. Transactions can be fully anonymous, and while you could ban exchanges, exchanges are not actually necessary any more. Is Bitcoin going to become the dominant global currency for daily transactions? Will financial institutions make more and more use of blockchains and programmable money?

To pick a single metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture simple example: Will financial institutions around the world wind up using Bitcoin as the global settlement currency? Major financial institutions are quite comfortable with requiring permission; in fact they very much prefer it. Will Bitcoin be replaced by a better cryptocurrency? This, if you ask me, is the most interesting question here, the one whose answer is not obvious. More chains are coming online every month.

Is it really so unlikely that Bitcoin will be supplanted? First, Bitcoin is a complete, complex, highly engineered cryptographic, economic, and software system and network, now thoroughly battle- and time-tested, with enormous mindshare and a thriving ecosystem.

Metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture on some new idea with a whitepaper is a bit like deciding that a dude folding paper airplanes for kids will one day beat Boeing; maybe, but metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture unlikely. Second, thanks to the immense — horrifyingly immense — number of watts poured into it by miners every hour, it is, by far, the scarcest of all our digital scarcities. That second point is a little wobbly, though.

Yes, the estimate that made the rounds recently is probably wildly off, but as its valuation grows, metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture power consumption will grow too, as miners are more and more incentivized.

Second, even if Bitcoin succeeds, as Rusty Russell points out, people will want to change it e. So what are we left with? Does that mean its current valuation is justified in the long term? I can give you a very firm answer for metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture Disclosure, since it seems requisite: I mostly avoid any financial interest, implicit or explicit, long or metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture, in any cryptocurrency, so that I can write about them sans bias.

I do own precisely metascarcity and bitcoinsfuture bitcoin, though, which I purchased a couple of years ago because I felt silly not owning any while I was advising a since defunct Bitcoin-based company. And fury from those for whom Bitcoin represents tech bros busy fiddling with some kind of bullshit libertarian Internet money while all around us Rome is burning:

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These new people are different. The only reason they are here is the money. When we consider that fresh, naive amateurs are and their money is flowing into the sector at a rate of millions of people per month, we should also understand that these amateurs are more susceptible to the animal spirits than their stoic, abrasive, less-socially-adept, battle-hardened forebears. They will be prone to cut and run. As such, a shock to the system, such as an exchange being taken down in a necessary and overdue enforcement action, could lead to a loss in confidence in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole and a stampede for the exits the likes of which Bitcoin has not seen to date.

As Bitcoin qua decentralized bank is running a fractional reserve with a chronic shortage of dollars, a shock therefore has the potential to not just drive the price of Bitcoin down a little bit, but also lead to a major liquidity crunch and abject panic. In the current environment, there are a number of ways such a shock could arise. I had a hunch people were lending into the sector. Fortunately, I was reading CoinDesk this afternoon and their reporting from the Consensus: It would not only facilitate short positions but also provide working capital for trading desks to make markets, he said.

During his talk, Boonen of B2C2 acknowledged the irony of the situation given that bitcoin was born as a reaction to the credit crisis. There are two, not necessarily mutually exclusive ways people are responding to the Great Bubble of Cryptocurrency is, admittedly, much smaller than the subprime bubble, which was roughly 2 orders of magnitude larger than Bitcoin today.

But Bitcoin has shown, on several occasions, a persistent ability to defy detractors like me to grow an order of magnitude in less than 12 months; if it does so again, it will be 3x larger than LTCM. LTCM on its own very nearly ruined the world in It is a matter of time before the punter on the street becomes as disillusioned as I, an irascible blockchain software entrepreneur, have become.

Put another way, this is a disaster waiting to happen. Fortunately for us, is not ancient history, and the fact that Bitcoin is a classic, manic bubble is so transparently obvious that it should be impossible for thinking people to deal with it otherwise. There are no excuses for not doing right by the societies and taxpayers who had to bail out the financial services industry last time around.

So, banks, shadow banks, and anyone else of systemic importance, I implore you: Hey Preston, some exchanges have lending markets which power margin trading, and others say they use their own liquidity. There may be institutions directly lending to the exchanges themselves but there are at lest some transparent mechanisms and institutions could in theory lend via the platform.

The exchanges take a cut of the interest. Creating un-backed Tether to lend would certainly be a cause for concern and is getting some attention but yet to be proven. Its more like a cult you just need to quietly worship the 25 year old who had magically created millions out of thin air.

Like Liked by 1 person. You decry the new uninformed investors in this market but you need some pretty deep levels of stupidity to borrow in a deflationary space.

I wonder if naysayers like Byrne and Dimon will put their money where their mouth is and sell short. Shorting a cryptocurrency is a great way to lose your shirt. So is being long for that matter. They reek of fear. This could get serious There are two, not necessarily mutually exclusive ways people are responding to the Great Bubble of Just say no So, banks, shadow banks, and anyone else of systemic importance, I implore you: Then keep running Like this: November 29, November 30, Categories: Great comment Jim, thank you!

Rohit Mittal Author November 30, at Author December 3, at 9: OnLine Author December 3, at 9: ChicagoBob Author December 3, at 3: Thank you for making it clear. ChicagoBob Author December 3, at 8: Try not to be Isaac Newton. Metascarcity and Bitcoins future - cryptoconverts.

Metascarcity and Bitcoins future Author December 4, at 8: Metascarcity and Bitcoins future - BitcoinMall.