The Case Against Augur

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For the things that are seen are transient, but the things that are unseen are eternal. Why write a case against Augur? Pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure, its pure self-defense at this point.

However, if you are interested, here is a rough timeline of the key events leading up to this point:. And check out the FAQ article he wrote later:. That video claims that I had no plans pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure build the software myself. For I had laid out pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure important design-requirements for Truthcoin, which the Augur team abandoned whenever:.

Of course, Augur did make a number of changes to the core Truthcoin idea. Truthcoin has been improved in the past. Casey Detrio improved TC twice, through hard work and specialization. Andrew Poelstra, after Roger Ver hired him to review pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure design, made minor improvements in essentially one weekend. Countless people wrote in, to add some clarity to a specific line item in the Truthcoin whitepaper, for example Riccardo Casatta. To gloss over some important details, in general getting a PhD is a ton of hard, underpaid work, for which you are eventually rewarded with the job of tenured professor.

For those who get a PhD, but instead go on to work in industry, pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure interpretation is usually that they were unable to get an academic job. When I met Jack, he was a something year-old, ungrateful subordinate to a ish year old pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure dropout.

So, you had to feel bad for this Jack guy. All that analytic training, only to go entirely unused. Certainly, the CEO complained to me that Jack did not respect him, and wanted to do everything his own way.

This single change actually managed to break the entire incentive structure. I pointed out pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure flaw, and they eventually were forced to admit that their change was a terrible idea, and they changed it back.

Then, believe it or not, they changed that thing againand broke it a second time. Again, I pointed out the error, and again, months later they were ultimately forced to agree that they had again made a mistake.

And then, get this, they actually changed it a third time to something elsewhich was again broken! What they suck up most, is my free time. They suck because the Augur team is motivated by ego and money, as opposed to a love of the technology. And you know that pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure real reason is just because Jack wants to weasel his way into taking some intellectual credit for the idea.

Some of it is almost too painful to explain: I am sure that Jack is sincere in believing these things, even though they are completely untrueand I am sorry to have to point it out.

Augur, despite my endless protestsis built on Ethereum. Ethereum is a running joke among Bitcoin experts. Since transitioning from academic experiment to full-blown dishonest scam, Ethereum is laughed at at Bitcoin conferences. Therefore, market cap and, crucially, the betting security margin will be prohibitively low. Crypto takes a very long time to get right; critical errors were regularly discovered in Bitcoin which was actually a finished software product when it was published in Jan and continue to be discovered today.

However, Bitcoin at least has consistent rules, and thanks to the Soft Fork the security can at least accumulate over time. Ethereum is out of moneythe software will never reach a stable, usable state.

The Ethereum team endorses an even bigger running joke: Today, most people have still not heard of Bitcoin. Quadruple that problem for Ethereum, as it has an even greater reliance on group s of people coordinating to switch to it.

Ethereum is strategically trapped: Ethereum has only one use-case: Hopefully it should be clear by now that blockchains are an inefficient databaseuseful only to get something unpopular done.

Startups can be sued or fined by the government in which they reside, protocols cannot reside anywhere and cannot be sued or controlled. For security reasons, all Bitcoin software must be open source. However, open source software can be used for free, by definition. The startup must get revenues from non-software sources…but this discourages them from working on improving the software! Whatever this clueless response from Jeremy Gardner is: Basic principles of software modularity, pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure, collaboration dictate that this be done.

Augur used a crowdsale. Crowdsales are horribly immoral and produce incentives which guarantee failure. It was smart of them to refuse, of course, because all of them would have gotten crushed. Still, I typed up some of the material hereway before their crowdsale took place, to try to help the public make an informed decision. Now, the sheer volume of concealed-incompetence is too vast, so I will just focus on two items 8 and Anyway, the May list contains me!

In fact, I was listed 2nd, despite my being largely unknown in Bitcoinland at the time. He was such a big fan that he invested some of his own money in Augur. Hanson is The Man, godfather of modern prediction markets, and runs one of the greatest websites on the internet.

He played a large part in the creation of InTrade. Since it failed, he has been trying heroically to resurrect it as have I. He heard about my project from this tweet in June and emailed me to talk. Months later, I told him about the different teams working on Truthcoin, including Augur. Augur had lunch with him in NYC once, and asked him if they could use his name on the website. Othman is a researcher who works with the math behind Market Scoring rules.

MSRs are just a single formula, and he already published his pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure forumlas. Houman Shadab is some lawyer. He seemed like a nice guy…for all I know, he gives good legal advice.

And yet, Augur constantly is using the adviser list to feign some kind of exclusive relationship with these people, which does not pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure. Given that he never accepted the debate offer, this is the closest he ever came to responding to the numerous, extremely-important objections I raised there.

I mean, one can still dig up all of this confirming information with mere Google searches:. And on and on it goes.

For example, this perplexing GitHub documentation:. Python is a great programming language. It is popular to use, easy to read and write, and relatively easy to keep secure. The Bitcoin Developer community is pretty important; this is no time to start a Language Debate. Zack was one of the first to fall in love with Truthcoin in earlyand poured all of his pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure time into understanding the idea and building it into a python blockchain.

Purely motivated by a love of the tech and a vision for the future, Zack who lived quite modestly, and -I suspect- has something of a stressful life was volunteering, in his spare time. The Augur team had money, and were generally clueless, so I tried to pair them up in late Augur hired Zack, and Zack spent 3 months walking them through Truthcoin protocol and his python blockchain. Zack was highly underpaid, in my view.

At least two people were making 2. Believe it or not, Augur forced Zack to sign something so that he would be unable to discuss the software code with non-Augur employees. Zack would even be banned from using the Truthcoin forumwhere Zack currently has posts over a period beginning May It could only be changed with a shareholder vote yuck!

Of course, all pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure his work stayed behind! Instead they waited for Zack to quit, hired a new python developer, and somehow ended up with a Truthcoin consensus system written in python!

Augur constantly pitches this system as some kind of startup organization, when it is nothing like a startup organization at all. They act like it is a big deal to certain people as advisors, when in reality, these people know almost nothing about what Augur does and are just trying to be supportive in general, or have ulterior motives. Vitalik Buterin, for example, is actually an angel investor in Augur.

Crowdsale-victims transferred money from themselves, to Vitalik. Obviously I am not happy to think that I could have contributed, even indirectly, to this scam, by publishing the ideas which Augur used, as an open proposal under the GPL and later MIT licenses. I certainly made an effort to advise people not to participate, pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure was time-consuming, and this advice was at least, partially ignored.

There is just something about Bitcoin that causes people to want to give their money to scams. It quickly crashed below-the-Dogecoin, and is presently circling the drain of its final destination of zero. No one complains when they make money on a risky gamble. Anyone who had done any due diligence would have known that Augur would be worth zero. Few experts ie code-literate technical people were fooled:.

It might as well go to them instead of be wasted on pirateat40 bitcoin address organizational structure other scam project. BitShares is a protocol which relied on prediction markets despite the fact that the creator did not understand what prediction markets were or what he was doing. However, Erik Voorhees is a bit of surprise.

He apparently invested with Augur, out of at the time at least three better teams.

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Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency , a form of money that uses cryptography to control its creation and management, rather than relying on central authorities. Prior to the release of bitcoin there were a number of digital cash technologies starting with the issuer based ecash protocols of David Chaum [2] and Stefan Brands.

Adam Back developed hashcash , a proof-of-work scheme for spam control. The first proposals for distributed digital scarcity based cryptocurrencies were Wei Dai 's b-money and Nick Szabo 's bit gold. Bit gold, b-money and RPOW all used hashcash as their proof-of-work algorithm.

Independently and at around the same time, Wei Dai proposed b-money [3] and Nick Szabo proposed bit gold. In the bit gold proposal which proposed a collectible market based mechanism for inflation control, Nick Szabo also investigated some additional enabling aspects including a Byzantine fault-tolerant asset registry to store and transfer the chained proof-of-work solutions.

There has been much speculation as to the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto with suspects including Wei Dai , Hal Finney and accompanying denials. In November , a paper was posted on the internet under the name Satoshi Nakamoto titled bitcoin: This paper detailed methods of using a peer-to-peer network to generate what was described as "a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust". On 6 August , a major vulnerability in the bitcoin protocol was spotted.

Transactions weren't properly verified before they were included in the transaction log or " blockchain " which let users bypass bitcoin's economic restrictions and create an indefinite number of bitcoins.

Within hours, the transaction was spotted and erased from the transaction log after the bug was fixed and the network forked to an updated version of the bitcoin protocol. Wikileaks [20] and other organizations began to accept bitcoins for donations. The Electronic Frontier Foundation began, and then temporarily suspended, bitcoin acceptance, citing concerns about a lack of legal precedent about new currency systems.

On 22 March WeUseCoins published the first viral video [23] which has had over 6. In January , bitcoin was featured as the main subject within a fictionalized trial on the CBS legal drama The Good Wife in the third season episode " Bitcoin for Dummies ".

The host of CNBC 's Mad Money , Jim Cramer , played himself in a courtroom scene where he testifies that he doesn't consider bitcoin a true currency, saying "There's no central bank to regulate it; it's digital and functions completely peer to peer". In October , BitPay reported having over 1, merchants accepting bitcoin under its payment processing service. In March the bitcoin transaction log or "blockchain" temporarily forked into two independent logs with differing rules on how transactions could be accepted.

In April, payment processors BitInstant and Mt. Bitcoin gained greater recognition when services such as OkCupid and Foodler began accepting it for payment. On 15 May , the US authorities seized accounts associated with Mt. In July a project began in Kenya linking bitcoin with M-Pesa , a popular mobile payments system, in an experiment designed to spur innovative payments in Africa.

On 6 August , Federal Judge Amos Mazzant of the Eastern District of Texas of the Fifth Circuit ruled that bitcoins are "a currency or a form of money" specifically securities as defined by Federal Securities Laws , and as such were subject to the court's jurisdiction, [48] [49] and Germany's Finance Ministry subsumed bitcoins under the term "unit of account"—a financial instrument—though not as e-money or a functional currency, a classification nonetheless having legal and tax implications.

Two companies, Robocoin and Bitcoiniacs launched the world's first bitcoin ATM on 29 October in Vancouver , BC , Canada , allowing clients to sell or purchase bitcoin currency at a downtown coffee shop. In November , the University of Nicosia announced that it would be accepting bitcoin as payment for tuition fees, with the university's chief financial officer calling it the "gold of tomorrow". In January , Zynga [59] announced it was testing bitcoin for purchasing in-game assets in seven of its games.

The article also stated the currency would be accepted in five locations, including the front desk and certain restaurants. Among the factors which may have contributed to this rise were the European sovereign-debt crisis —particularly the — Cypriot financial crisis —statements by FinCEN improving the currency's legal standing and rising media and Internet interest.

Nakamoto was responsible for creating the majority of the official bitcoin software and was active in making modifications and posting technical information on the BitcoinTalk Forum. The New Yorker's investigation brought up at least two possible candidates: Michael Clear and Vili Lehdonvirta. Fast Company' s investigation brought up circumstantial evidence linking an encryption patent application filed by Neal King, Vladimir Oksman and Charles Bry on 15 August , and the bitcoin.

The patent application contained networking and encryption technologies similar to bitcoin's, and textual analysis revealed that the phrase " The two researchers based their suspicion on an analysis of the network of bitcoin transactions. Nakamoto's involvement with bitcoin does not appear to extend past mid Other clues suggested that Nakamoto was British: A newspaper headline he had encoded in the genesis block came from the UK-published newspaper The Times , and both his forum posts and his comments in the bitcoin source code used British English spellings, such as "optimise" and "colour".

An Internet search by an anonymous blogger of texts similar in writing to the bitcoin whitepaper suggests Nick Szabo 's "bit gold" articles as having a similar author.

On 12 March , a bitcoin miner running version 0. This created a split or "fork" in the blockchain since computers with the recent version of the software accepted the invalid block and continued to build on the diverging chain, whereas older versions of the software rejected it and continued extending the blockchain without the offending block. This split resulted in two separate transaction logs being formed without clear consensus, which allowed for the same funds to be spent differently on each chain.

In response, the Mt. Gox exchange temporarily halted bitcoin deposits. Miners resolved the split by downgrading to version 0. User funds largely remained unaffected and were available when network consensus was restored. Additionally, FinCEN claimed regulation over American entities that manage bitcoins in a payment processor setting or as an exchanger: In summary, FinCEN's decision would require bitcoin exchanges where bitcoins are traded for traditional currencies to disclose large transactions and suspicious activity, comply with money laundering regulations, and collect information about their customers as traditional financial institutions are required to do.

Basic money-services business rules apply here. In its October study, Virtual currency schemes , the European Central Bank concluded that the growth of virtual currencies will continue, and, given the currencies' inherent price instability, lack of close regulation, and risk of illegal uses by anonymous users, the Bank warned that periodic examination of developments would be necessary to reassess risks.

In , the U. Treasury extended its anti-money laundering regulations to processors of bitcoin transactions. In June , Bitcoin Foundation board member Jon Matonis wrote in Forbes that he received a warning letter from the California Department of Financial Institutions accusing the foundation of unlicensed money transmission. Matonis denied that the foundation is engaged in money transmission and said he viewed the case as "an opportunity to educate state regulators.

In late July , the industry group Committee for the Establishment of the Digital Asset Transfer Authority began to form to set best practices and standards, to work with regulators and policymakers to adapt existing currency requirements to digital currency technology and business models and develop risk management standards. Securities and Exchange Commission filed an administrative action against Erik T. Voorhees, for violating Securities Act Section 5 for publicly offering unregistered interests in two bitcoin websites in exchange for bitcoins.

Theft of bitcoin has been documented on numerous occasions. At other times, bitcoin exchanges have shut down, taking their clients' bitcoins with them. A Wired study published April showed that 45 percent of bitcoin exchanges end up closing.

On 19 June , a security breach of the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange caused the nominal price of a bitcoin to fraudulently drop to one cent on the Mt.

Gox exchange, after a hacker used credentials from a Mt. Gox auditor's compromised computer illegally to transfer a large number of bitcoins to himself. They used the exchange's software to sell them all nominally, creating a massive "ask" order at any price. Within minutes, the price reverted to its correct user-traded value.

In July , the operator of Bitomat, the third-largest bitcoin exchange, announced that he had lost access to his wallet. He announced that he would sell the service for the missing amount, aiming to use funds from the sale to refund his customers. Bitcoinica was hacked twice in , which led to allegations that the venue neglected the safety of customers' money and cheated them out of withdrawal requests. Securities and Exchange Commission had reportedly started an investigation on the case.

As a result, Bitfloor suspended operations. As a result, Instawallet suspended operations. On 11 August , the Bitcoin Foundation announced that a bug in a pseudorandom number generator within the Android operating system had been exploited to steal from wallets generated by Android apps; fixes were provided 13 August In October , Inputs. The service was run by the operator TradeFortress.

Coinchat, the associated bitcoin chat room, has been taken over by a new admin. The CEO was arrested and charged with embezzlement. On 3 March , Flexcoin announced it was closing its doors because of a hack attack that took place the day before.

It pledged to reopen and make reimburse its customers. In , the Cryptocurrency Legal Advocacy Group CLAG stressed the importance for taxpayers to determine whether taxes are due on a bitcoin-related transaction based on whether one has experienced a " realization event": In August , the German Finance Ministry characterized bitcoin as a unit of account , [50] [] usable in multilateral clearing circles and subject to capital gains tax if held less than one year.

On 5 December , the People's Bank of China announced in a press release regarding bitcoin regulation that whilst individuals in China are permitted to freely trade and exchange bitcoins as a commodity, it is prohibited for Chinese financial banks to operate using bitcoins or for bitcoins to be used as legal tender currency, and that entities dealing with bitcoins must track and report suspicious activity to prevent money laundering.

On June 18, , it was announced that bitcoin payment service provider BitPay would become the new sponsor of the St. Petersburg Bowl game under a two-year deal, renamed the Bitcoin St. Bitcoin will be accepted for ticket and concession sales as part of the sponsorship, and the sponsorship itself was also paid for using bitcoin. History of bitcoin Further information: Number of bitcoin transactions per month logarithmic scale.

Retrieved 22 October Advances in Cryptology Proceedings of Crypto. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Archived from the original on Retrieved 5 December Retrieved 24 June Retrieved 19 May Retrieved 20 December Retrieved 13 October Retrieved 26 March Retrieved 22 March